Africa looks likely to continue relying on power from fossil fuels for some time
Galina Alova (University of Oxford), Philipp Trotter (University of Wuppertal)
This article was first published on The Conversation
The article discusses the prevalent narrative of "leapfrogging" to new technologies in Africa, focusing on the potential for a quick transition to renewable energy. While renewable energy sources are becoming more competitive and costs are decreasing, a recent study suggests limited evidence for a rapid shift to renewables in Africa within this decade. The study, which used a machine-learning model, indicates that solar and wind are likely to account for less than 10% of the electricity mix in 2030, with fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, still dominating. The success of power plant projects is influenced by factors such as project design, technology type, and country-level development indicators. There are significant regional variations, with North Africa predicted to have a higher success rate than Central Africa. The study emphasizes the economic risks and benefits, suggesting that many African countries may not make a decisive leap to renewables, potentially locking their economies into carbon-intensive power generation. It calls for careful consideration of the economic rationale for relying on fossil fuels and emphasizes the need for more renewable energy projects to meet Africa's growing energy demand.
The article explores the prospect of Africa swiftly transitioning to renewable energy, highlighting factors such as decreasing costs and the continent's abundant renewable resources. However, a recent study, employing machine learning, projects that by 2030, solar and wind energy will likely constitute less than 10% of Africa's energy mix, with fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, maintaining dominance. The success of energy projects is contingent upon various factors, including project design, technology type, and country-specific development indicators, resulting in significant regional disparities.
North Africa is predicted to have a higher success rate compared to Central Africa, showcasing substantial variations. The study underscores economic risks, suggesting that numerous African countries might not undergo a decisive shift to renewables in this decade, potentially entrenching their economies in carbon-intensive power generation. This scenario raises concerns about asset stranding as continued investments in fossil fuel plants face risks of diminished returns due to evolving market and regulatory dynamics aligned with climate change agendas.
The article advocates for a meticulous examination of the economic rationale behind persisting with fossil fuel-based generation, emphasizing the importance of considering country-specific endowments and developmental needs. To meet Africa's burgeoning energy demand sustainably, the study argues for increased planning and enhanced success rates for renewable energy projects, underscoring the imperative for a strategic and comprehensive approach.
